The opposition Labour Party appeared more likely than Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s coalition to form a government after Australia’s election on Saturday that could result in a rare hung parliament.

Centre-left Labour could still form a majority government, based on early vote counting, lawmakers and analysts said. But the coalition’s only hope was to form a minority administration in a hung parliament.

“A Labour majority in our own right is, I think it’s very clear, the most likely outcome of this election,” senior Labour lawmaker Chris Bowen told Seven Network.

Former defence minister Chris Pyne, who retired from Morrison’s government in the last election, also ruled out the coalition scoring enough seats to form a majority government. “The coalition can’t get there in its own right, no,” he said.
The government was seeking a fourth three-year term.

Jim Finn holds his eight-month-old daughter Allegra as he casts his vote at a polling booth in Sydney, Australia
Jim Finn holds his eight-month-old daughter Allegra as he casts his vote at a polling booth in Sydney (Mark Baker/AP)

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s party ended the six-week campaign as a favourite to win its first election since 2007. But Morrison defied the opinion polls in 2019 by leading his coalition to a narrow victory.

His coalition holds the narrowest of majorities — 76 seats in the 151-member House of Representatives, where parties need a majority to form a government.

In early counting on Saturday, the coalition was on track to win 38 seats, Labour 71, seven were unaligned lawmakers and 23 were too close to call.

Minor parties and independents appeared to be taking votes from the major parties, which increases the likelihood of a hung parliament and a minority government.

Australia Politics
Labour Party leader Anthony Albanese walks with his dog Toto after he voted in Sydney (Rick Rycroft/AP)

Australia most recent hung parliaments were from 2010-13, and the Second World War.

A record proportion of postal votes because of the pandemic, which will not be added to the count until Sunday, adds to the uncertainty in early counting.

As well as campaigning against Labour, Morrison’s conservative Liberal Party fought off a new challenge from so-called teal independent candidates to key government lawmakers’ reelection in party strongholds.

At least four Liberal lawmakers appeared to have lost their seats to teal independents including Liberal Party deputy leader Josh Frydenberg, who had been considered Morrison’s most likely successor.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his wife Jenny cast their votes at a polling booth in his electorate of Cook as their daughters Lily and Abbey watch in Sydney
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his wife Jenny cast their votes at a polling booth in his electorate of Cook (Mark Baker/AP)

“What we have achieved here is extraordinary,” teal candidate and former foreign correspondent Zoe Daniels said in her victory speech. “Safe Liberal seat. Two-term incumbent. Independent,” she added.

The teal independents are marketed as a greener shade than the Liberal Party’s traditional blue colour and want stronger government action on reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions than either the government or Labour are proposing.

The government’s Senate leader Simon Birmingham was concerned by big swings toward several teal candidates.

“It is a clear problem that we are losing seats that are heartland seats, that have defined the Liberal Party for generations,” Birmingham said.

A surfer runs past a polling booth in Sydney, Australia
A surfer runs past a polling booth in Sydney, Australia (Mark Baker/AP)

“If we lose those seats — it is not certain that we will — but there is clearly a big movement against us and there is clearly a big message in it,” Birmingham added.

The first polling stations closed on the country’s east coast at 6pm. The west coast is two hours behind.

Due to the pandemic, about half of Australia’s 17 million electors have voted early or applied for postal votes, which will likely slow the count.

Voting is compulsory for adult citizens and 92% of registered voters cast ballots at the last election.

A daughter helps her father cast his vote at a polling booth in Sydney, Australia
A daughter helps her father cast his vote at a polling booth in Sydney (Mark Baker/AP)

Early polling for reasons of travel or work began two weeks ago and the Australian Electoral Commission will continue collecting postal votes for another two weeks.

The government changed regulations on Friday to enable people recently infected with Covid-19 to vote over the phone.

Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said more than 7,000 polling stations opened as planned and on time across Australia despite 15% of polling staff falling sick this week with Covid-19 and flu.

Albanese said he had thought Morrison would have called the election last weekend because Australia’s prime minister is expected at a Tokyo summit on Tuesday with US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“If we get a clear outcome today then whoever is prime minister will be on a plane to Tokyo on Monday, which isn’t ideal, I’ve got to say, immediately after a campaign,” Albanese said.

Analysts have said that Morrison left the election until the latest date available to him to give himself more time to reduce Labour’s lead in opinion polls.