THE county’s tightest local election campaign of recent times will test candidates to the last – with those who have been around longest now having the most to lose.

On “the stump” it is apparent that fresh faces and fresh ideas prove a compelling concept.

But equally apparent is the distance between the doorstep and the ballot box.

Talk of change does not easily translate into effecting change.

So it is the cause of effect that will test candidates to the end.

All sides accept a need to increase the voter turn-out if the new council – not least the machinations almost certainly required to create it – is to have real resonance beyond Shirehall.

From a purely political perspective, those machinations will need a handful of old - or old-ish - hands to work them effectively.

But, on anecdotal sample evidence from the campaign so far,  a bigger turn-out puts old hands at risk in wards once taken for granted.

 This time around, it is not enough for a long-standing candidate to shrug off a challenge as “seen it all before”.

A sizeable proportion of the electorate clearly wants to see something else in its council, it is the definition of something else that seems elusive.

With little more than two weeks to go, something else may yet been seen in a fresh look at what is already there.

That’s a dilemma that should be exercising the minds of respective campaign managers as the election enters its final stages.

It remains the case that for first time in the 17 years of Herefordshire Council so far, a majority of wards up for election have real potential to deliver “surprise” returns.

Over recent weeks, the perception of that challenge has shifted the emphasis of “surprise” to long-standing candidates actually being returned.

Though the stakes have been raised by ward changes that slim the council down to 53 councillors elected on a one ward, one member basis, the indications are still of a council headed for coalition.

There are new wards, too, that are hard to call given the political climate they have been created in.

Given the spread of group and party representation in the list of  candidates, and projected voter returns based on patterns in the previous election and subsequent by-elections, then, even with newcomers UKIP as the variable, there are statistical limitations on any party or group looking to take an outright majority free from a combined opposition challenge.

The more likely prospect – on present numbers – is a negotiated power-share.

Within that, is the intriguing prospect of providing “strong” opposition, that could also be offered on a coalition basis if individuals feel alienated, on principle, by the terms of power share talks and who they are between.

Such individuals are, tacitly at least, making their views known - bu first, they've got to be elected.

With every ward now having bargaining value towards “seats at the table” it all comes to a head at Hereford Leisure Centre and a count over Friday, May 8.

At the start of the election the Hereford Times listed a series of bellwether wards to watch.

 That list still stands – though one significant addition that has emerged since.

Mortimer

With 2,565 eligible voters spread across a sizeable section of north-west Herefordshire, Mortimer was a true blue shoo-in for the Tories.

But in 2011, David Thame polled well here for It’s Our County (IOC) from a standing start coming within 225 votes of ward stalwart the late Olwyn Barnett.

IOC are talking up Mortimer and candidate Alison Kay with increasing confidence.

An IOC win here would be one of the defining results of the count.

Equally huge, for the Tories, is a hold for Carole Gandy which would show that they were not ready to die at their roots.

This one could come down to the number of votes Independent Vic Harnett takes off either.

The other wards to watch were:

Birch

In November 2013, Jon Norris pulled off a groundbreaking by-election win for It's Our County (IOC) in the former Pontrilas ward.

Now he needs to defend - or extend - a 168 majority in an amended ward on a turn-out sure to be stronger than the 32.9 per cent last time around.

The Birch result will define the extent to which IOC has penetrated rural voting patterns, and whether that penetration has the potential for permanence.

The Tories really need David Harlow to deliver a “rally round” win having finished a soul-crushing third defending that Pontrilas by-election.

And Independent Elaine Godding, who pushed the Tories down then, is having another go.

Castle:

Given their record on candidate returns, it’s easy to take wards like Castle for granted.

But here, the synonymous John Hope has stepped down leaving a 353 Tory majority for Clive Skelton to defend.

Independent Stephen Grist ate into that majority last time taking 512 votes, enough to tempt him into another go.

With IOC’s Dave McAndrew in the mix, Castle becomes a bellwether win for whoever takes it.

Ledbury North:

IOC can ill-afford to lose deputy leader - and Tory tormentor - Liz Harvey.

Tories would toast Phill Bettington to the rafters of Hereford Leisure Centre if he can win what is a head-to-head fight between two councillors on opposite sides of the last administration.

With the strategic ramifications obvious, this one, at its most base,  is about bragging rights.

Leominster East, Leominster South,  Leominster West, Leominster North & Rural:

This morning (Wed) the Greens secured what is - at least at face value - a majority on Leominster Town Council, the elections for which won’t be contested.

In these four seats there’s the potential for them to make an impact at county level.

Two of these seats turned Green over the last administration.

There’s every indication that the two can be retained, with the real possibility of a third being won.

And a fourth?

Given who they are up against, it would be one of the county’s biggest political shocks.

Newton Farm:

 This one’s bubbling given the “differences” between the two contenders - Independent Phil Edwards and Glenda Powell billed as unattached.

 Both of them were on the last council, boundary changes now butt them up against each other.

Is there, then, enough space for a Tory, Lib Dem or IOC alternative to squeeze through?

Saxon Gate:

On the assumption that IOC can hold what it has in Hereford city, this new and demographically wide-ranging ward represents both a big chance for a bonus win and a real test of credentials.

Should IOC lose any of the city wards it is defending, a win here is a strategic necessity.

Widemarsh:

 Another new ward offering a similar scenario to Saxon Gate as a test of electoral confidence in IOC.